Why Forecast Models Aren’t Any Better Than Polls

Hate is at the root of the MAGA cult. Hate has been at the root of conservative politics since Rush Limbaugh was given free reign by Ronald Reagan to pollute the airwaves ad nauseam with the destruction of the Fairness Doctrine. Limbaugh's ideas were not based on policies, legislation or culture positions, but to make Republican voters despise the left so much that they would forgo all their morals, credibility, and vote for a racist rapist instead of a Democratic politician. In Duncan Black's post, No One left To hate, he writes: I get that hating immigrants and minorities has a lot more political appeal than I would like, but once the setting for "other" is a bit to broad then I assume you starting hitting some of your own voters.

After hate-watching HBO's "Real Time" with host Bill Maher, Donald unleashed a bizarre rant. Interestingly, and in true Trump form, he posted on Truth Social just before midnight in all caps that women's lives will be happier and beautiful again if he wins the election in November. He also repeated his lie about abortions after birth, and "YOU WILL NO LONGER BE THINKING ABOUT ABORTION" if he's elected. Then, this morning, Trump went on to call MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle, who was on Maher's show, a "dumb as a rock bimbo." Trump also took issue with conservative New York Times columnist Bret Stephens. On Truth Social, he wrote:read more

In 2021, Cory Tomczyk, who is now a Wisconsin State Senator, attended a public meeting which was discussing a resolution regarding diversity and inclusivity. During this meeting, Tomczyk used a homophobic slur against a 13-year-old boy. The Wausau Pilot & Review watched the video of the meeting and interviewed several people who witnessed the event, and then they committed the dastardly deed of reporting the news! Oh, humanity! Tomczyk decided to sue the paper for defamation because they accurately reported on his behaviors.

Update: At a rally in North Carolina on Saturday, Trump backed away from another debate, saying “The problem with another debate is that it’s just too late. Voting has already started.” Vice President Kamala Harris accepted an invitation from CNN to debate Donald Trump for a second time on October 23.

We're all used to Donald launching nonsensical rants. That's nothing new, but he is an excellent salesman to his rubes as they somehow believe their hero is a Stable Genius™, but don't tell them they're weird or in a cult, OK? Donald addressed the Israeli American Council National Summit in Washington on Thursday, which was pretty awkward since it was an event for "Fighting Anti-Semitism in America," even though his bestie, N.

“Tired of playing only defense, a small but vocal number of Senate Democrats are pushing party leaders and political operatives to pour money into trying to knock off GOP incumbents in races most view as long shots for Democrats,” the Washington Post reports. “They fear Democrats are leaving potential pickups on the table, particularly in Florida and Texas, where unpopular incumbents, Sens.