Comment on Why Forecast Models Aren’t Any Better Than Polls

Why Forecast Models Aren’t Any Better Than Polls

Natalie Jackson: “Forecasts based on polls and election ‘fundamentals,’ like what FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Nate Silver produce, are more intriguing from an empirical standpoint. The statistical machinations are genuinely challenging and interesting to work on: combining national and state-level polls, economic factors, incumbency factors, and vote history, and then spinning it all up into a state-by-state prediction that can be used to simulate presidential elections.

 

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