Arkaprava Ghosh / Barcroft India/ Barcroft Media via Getty Images The US yield curve is flattening, a normal scenario at a time when the US Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates. When the curve has turned negative in the past — where short-dated yields are higher than for longer-dates — it has almost always indicated that a recession will occur within two years. Macquarie Bank doesn’t expect the curve to turn negative until the end of 2019, but it says 2020 will be a “most interesting year”. Nearly a decade after the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, markets are now starting to think about when the next US recession might hit. The US yield curve — the difference between short and longer-dated bond yields — is continuing to flatten, and may go negative in the not-too-distant future.See the rest of the story at Business InsiderNOW WATCH: Wall Street's biggest bull explains why trade war fears are way overblownSee Also:One of Trump's biggest accomplishments could make the next recession worseChina just ramped up its holdings of US TreasurysForces are aligning that could see oil rise back above $80 a barrel
The Indicator With An Almost Perfect Record Of Predicting Us Recessions Is Edging Towards A Tipping Point
feedback@businessinsider.com (David Scutt), Business Insider
Fri, 04/20/2018 - 12:07am
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