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Bookmark or Share- Trump surging on Predictit - now favored to win | Political TalkTrump surging on Predictit - now favored to win. Posted on 9/9/24 at 1:20 pm. TakingStock. Member since Jun 2009. 6385 posts. Back to top. Started the day down 54/50 and now favored 52/51 on heels of the NYT and Harvard national polls and a slate of positive state polls. He needs to maintain composure in tomorrow’s debate and keep the ...
- MetaculusIf you’re a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.
- Predictive Performance on Metaculus vs. Manifold MarketsTLDR. I analysed a set of 64 (non-randomly selected) binary forecasting questions that exist both on Metaculus and on Manifold Markets. The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64).
- PredictIt - Trump & Harris Tied | Political Talk - TigerDroppings.comIt’s because they can’t be sure they can cheat the election enough to win again. The Right HAS to show up and vote. We have to keep the enthusiasm and momentum going. We can’t afford to make people apathetic by constantly screaming that the election is rigged and Trump can’t win.
- Prediction Resources - MetaculusAvoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise.
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