Grant Halverson/Getty ImagesDespite going 15-1, few outside of Charlotte are picking the Carolina Panthers to win the Super Bowl. However, according to Nate Silver's model, it is the Panthers who have the best chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy. Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the playoffs thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team has of winning the Super Bowl. This year's Super Bowl is much more up in the air than the one a year ago when the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots were heavy favorites to meet in the Super Bowl.