Comment on Large Bets in Election Markets Are from Overseas

A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll in Georgia shows Donald Trump with a slight edge over Kamala Harris, 47% to 43%.

Wall Street Journal: “Pollsters have spent the years since 2020 experimenting with ways to induce hard-to-reach voters to participate in surveys and testing statistical techniques intended to improve accuracy. But expert opinion is mixed on whether polling is in for a repeat of 2020, which the professional association of pollsters called the most inaccurate performance in 40 years.” “New developments, such as the shift of Black and Latino voters toward Trump and the proliferation of online surveys, are creating potential sources of additional error.” Nate Cohn: Two theories for why the polls failed in 2020, and what it means for 2024.

Wall Street Journal: “Democrats have a clear edge in early voting so far, but Republicans are embracing the practice of casting their ballots before Election Day more than they have in past election cycles, despite former President Donald Trump sending mixed signals on the issue.”

“Historically, it would be unusual to have seven states come down to a point or less. But I think at this point, you have to assume that’s a distinct possibility.” — David Plouffe, quoted by CNN.

Washington Post: “Nine years after he rode down a golden escalator to launch his first campaign with a combative speech disparaging Mexican immigrants as ‘rapists,’ Trump is closing out his third consecutive White House bid with a loud, ostentatious campaign that has thrust his conduct to the center of a photo-finish battle for the presidency.

“Steve Bannon, the right-wing podcaster and former Donald Trump aide, is set to get out of federal prison next Tuesday despite repeated attempts he and his legal defense team have made for him to be released early,” CNN reports. “The Bureau of Prisons said in a letter to Bannon on Monday that his release date will remain October 29, as originally set.