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Heather Cox Richardson: “Trump’s behavior is Authoritarianism 101. In a 1951 book called The True Believer, political philosopher Eric Hoffer noted that demagogues appeal to a disaffected population whose members feel they have lost the power they previously held, that they have been displaced either religiously, economically, culturally, or politically.

“I’m scared. I was scared before and I’m still scared—scared to death. Because I have a pretty good idea of what happens if this thing goes the wrong way.” — James Carville, quoted by Puck.

“Kamala Harris will rally voters Monday in Erie County, a bellwether that has a knack for predicting who carries Pennsylvania, having mirrored the outcome of this crucial battleground state in the last four elections,” NBC News reports. “The Democratic vice president’s trip kicks off a campaign blitz this week in a trio of Northern battlegrounds that can make or break her hopes of defeating Republican former President Donald Trump next month.”

John Heilemann: “All the polling is telling the same story. Never before has an election been so heavily polled or suffused with data—and never has that data been so intensely scrutinized, analyzed, and algorithmically massaged. Is it possible that all this polling will turn out to be wrong?” “Yes! In 2016 and 2020, the polling industrial complex screwed the poodle en masse, and not by a little (with 2020 producing an even bigger miss than the first time the data wizards had to contend with the Trump phenomenon).

Doug Sosnik has a new memo and presentation out about the state of the presidential race. “The public has firm views about Donald Trump but a significant portion of the electorate have not made up their mind about Vice President Harris.” “The election will likely come down to which campaign is better able to define Harris in the remaining 22 days of the election.

“This is going to be close all the way, and I know for Democrats that’s uncomfortable. But that’s just the reality. ’16 was close, ’20 was close, ’12 was close. This is going to be close. And this one may be close in more states than we’ve seen in a long time.