Donald Trump has now taken a 52% to 48% lead in the 538 forecast, though Kamala Harris is still favored to win the popular vote. G. Elliot Morris: “You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast ‘flipping’ to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate.