State Races Capture White House’s Eye

New York Times: “The first battleground state where the polls will close is Georgia, at 7 p.m. Eastern time, followed closely by North Carolina, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. A majority of voters cast ballots early in both states, and those results are expected to be reported early in the night.

Nate Silver: “At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%).” FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50% chance to win. Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 53% chance to win. The Economist gives Harris a 50% chance to win.

Nate Cohn: “For Democrats, it’s a textbook challenge. In the latest New York Times/Siena College national poll, only 40 percent of voters approved of President Biden’s performance, and just 28 percent of voters said the country was heading in the right direction. No party has ever retained control of the White House when such a small share of Americans think the country is doing well.” “The challenge for Donald Trump is much more unusual, but equally obvious: He’s a felon who attempted to overturn the last election.

Wall Street Journal: “Prices on four betting platforms all point to an election victory for Donald Trump. Prices on PredictIt, which in recent days suggested Kamala Harris had the better chance of winning, have now flipped back in Trump’s favor.” “Other betting markets have more consistently pointed to a Trump victory being the more probable outcome.

Washington Post: “Harris’s mostly likely path to the presidency is through the Rust Belt as she has posted some of her best polling numbers there. If she is able to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as all the non-swing states that Joe Biden won in 2020, that would put her at exactly 270 electoral votes, the minimum necessary to win.”

Washington Post: “Trump’s most likely path to 270 is winning Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, assuming he wins all the other non-swing states he won in 2020. Trump is ahead in Georgia by two points, and narrowly leads North Carolina by less than one point, which is the same margin by which Harris leads in Pennsylvania.”