You probably don’t have any insider information — or maybe you do! — but you might have a hunch at how competitive each state will be. For instance, you might still think it’s unlikely that Kamala Harris will win Iowa, but after the Ann Selzer poll over the weekend maybe you want to give her a 30% chance. .memberful-global-teaser-content p:last-child{ -webkit-mask-image: linear-gradient(180deg, #000 0%, transparent); mask-image: linear-gradient(180deg, #000 0%, transparent); } Join now to continue reading. Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising.