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Nate Silver: “At FiveThirtyEight, we actually had a formal definition of a ‘toss-up’, which is an election where each candidate had at least a 40 percent chance of winning. We’re now quite comfortably into that territory. As of this afternoon’s model run, Harris’s odds had improved to 44.6 percent, as compared to 54.9 percent for Trump and a 0.5 percent chance of an Electoral College deadlock.” “It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks.”

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