How to put all this into a Facebook valuation? To justify the big numbers being tossed around – $100bn and up – several things must happen in the next five to seven years. The business needs to become much less capital intensive (inclusive of acquisitions) over time, as Google and Microsoft have done. That is the easy part. But margins must also stay near today’s level of about 50 per cent – which would be uncharted territory. And sales would have to grow at least sixfold in this period.
Senh: The big question is ad sales. It's not as easy Financial Times think it is. Historically, click-through rates for social networking and community sites (forums, chats) have been significantly lower than the average content site. Facebook and Twitter haven't shown that they've been able to move click-through rates up. Unless than can come up with a new form of advertising, it's gonna be tough for their revenue to improve significantly.