I spent the afternoon at a political forecasting panel. The big takeaway, I think, is that you shouldn’t believe any forecasts yet. What matters is what happens in the election year, and so anything that’s using the president’s current poll numbers, or the current state of the economy, is basically useless, and any model that’s trying to predict the president’s poll numbers next year, or the state of the economy right before the election, is opening the door to so much error that it, too, is basically useless. Read full article >>