This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox. For the top strategists from both parties, there’s one number that dominates their thinking every four years: 270. That, of course, is the baseline of votes in the Electoral College needed to win the White House, and there’s only so many paths that either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could viably consider to get there. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] But for some quants, there’s another number that tells the story of how Joe Biden beat Trump in 2020: 1 million.

 

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