The Difficult Part Is Still Ahead

The explosive market rally following the fiscal cliff agreement was based more on what didn't happen than what did. What didn't happen was the implementation of automatic tax increases and spending cuts that would have shaved about 5% off GDP and cause a recession. What did happen was an agreement that would still reduce GDP by about 1.5%, an amount that still looms as significant in light of an economy that is only slogging along at a growth rate of about 2%.

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