Chinese Steel Exports Are Getting Hammered

Chinese crude steel output has gone from strength to strength this year, hitting record highs in each of the past two months. However, as seen in the chart below from the Commonwealth Bank, that strength entirely reflects improved domestic demand rather than demand from abroad. Chinese steel exports have been crunched, falling by 30% year-on-year in August, continuing the downward trend that began a year earlier. "China’s steel exports have been responding to trade barriers put in place by the US, India and the EU, as they try to protect their respective domestic steel industries," says Vivek Dhar, mining and energy commodities analyst at the Commonwealth Bank. Even with that sharp decline, Chinese crude steel output has risen by around 5% from January to July, something Dhar says reflects strong steel mill margins and resilient domestic demand. "The increase in output is notable because of the headwinds facing China’s steel exports," he says. "End-user demand remains resilient as Chinese stimulus continues to flow through China’s commodity intensive sectors.

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