No one is kidding themselves about Ohio’s sprawling 12th district in the central and eastern part of the state. It stretches from the Columbus suburbs into the rural Appalachian areas next to West Virginia. And it’s been pretty red in recent memory. Trump won the district both times, 53-42% in 2016 and 52 to 46% in 2020. Troy Balderson, a college dropout who bankrupted his family’s car sales business, was first elected to the state legislature in 2008 and very narrowly (101,772 to 100,208) won the congressional seat when Pat Tiberi retired in 2018.