The risk premium on high yield bonds indicates that the market is pricing in a 63% probability of recession. In December 2007, the comparable figure was 2%--and by then, as we later learned, the recession was already underway.
Martin Fridson, Forbes
Wed, 09/07/2011 - 12:57pm
The risk premium on high yield bonds indicates that the market is pricing in a 63% probability of recession. In December 2007, the comparable figure was 2%--and by then, as we later learned, the recession was already underway.